A Finnish Immigration Service service point in Helsinki. Photo: Vesa Moilanen / Lehtikuva
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The Finnish Immigration Service expects student and work-related migration to remain stable in 2025 and 2026, while asylum applications are projected to stay at moderate levels.
The agency’s foresight network, a body of experts convening three times a year, updated its forecast based on application trends through October and wider economic and geopolitical developments.
Between January and October 2025, 11,839 student residence permit applications were filed. This marked a 5 percent decrease from the same period in 2024.
Johannes Hirvelä, Director of Information Services, linked the decline to the introduction of a €100 application fee for non-EU and non-EEA citizens under the higher education joint application system. The fee was introduced at the start of 2025.
He said the fee, combined with the full-cost tuition model for international students, had contributed to a slowdown in growth seen in previous years.
Despite the drop, the Immigration Service estimates 13,000 to 14,000 student residence permit applications for 2025. For 2026, the forecast remains steady at around 13,000.
Work-based migration showed a sharper decline. Between January and October, 9,593 first-time work permit applications were submitted. This is 29 percent fewer than during the same period in 2024. The figure places the total near 2018 levels.
According to Hirvelä, the slowdown reflects weak economic conditions.
“Slow growth, higher unemployment, and global economic uncertainty explain the continued decline in work-based applications,” he said.
The forecast predicts 11,000 applications for first work-based residence permits in 2025, with a possible range of 11,000 to 13,000 in 2026. The agency noted that the labour market typically reacts slowly even if the national economy begins to improve.
Asylum applications in Finland and the EU have declined from the previous year. In Finland, 1,709 first asylum applications were submitted between January and October, a 15 percent drop compared to the same period in 2024.
Hirvelä said the fall in asylum applications was partly due to administrative changes in Syria and tighter entry controls across the EU. He noted that push factors remained strong in countries of origin, including conflict, political instability and poor economic conditions.
In the EU as a whole, 399,000 asylum applications were filed in the first half of 2025.
Finland is expected to receive between 1,500 and 2,500 first asylum applications annually in both 2025 and 2026.
HT
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Source: www.helsinkitimes.fi
