The over-84 population will rise by 174,000 by 2050. Photo: Emmi Korhonen / Lehtikuva
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A new demographic forecast warns that Finland’s population will decline after the 2040s, with only a few major cities maintaining growth.
Consultancy MDI’s projection, based on Statistics Finland data, extends to 2050. It shows that without immigration Finland’s population would fall every year, with deaths exceeding births since 2016. “Finland is already, to a large extent, a dying country,” said MDI expert Rasmus Aro, stressing that only one in ten municipalities records more births than deaths.
School-age groups are projected to collapse. By 2032 there will be 96,000 fewer pupils, equivalent to 600 closed schools. Nearly all municipalities will see a fall in school enrolment, and about 100 will lose almost one third of their pupils by the early 2030s. “One hundred thousand school desks will be emptied in a very short time,” Aro said.
The over-84 population will rise by 174,000 by 2050. Already between 2040 and 2050, Finland will gain another 32,000 people in this age group, demanding more care services. By 2050 one in seven Finns will be over 74, while more than a quarter will be older than 64.
The report outlines three scenarios alongside the baseline. A “city-focused” Finland would see large urban centres grow faster while peripheral areas decline. A “dispersed” Finland would require migration patterns similar to the pandemic years, spreading population more evenly. An “international Finland” assumes immigration at the record levels of 2023–2024, driven mainly by students and workers from Asia.
Even under the international scenario, the overall population would start shrinking in the 2040s. In the baseline, Finland’s population peaks at around 5.7 million in 2040 before falling to 5.62 million in 2050.
MDI’s Janne Antikainen noted that growth or decline will be uneven: “Population decline does not in itself mean the loss of vitality, if regions know how to adapt,” he said, pointing to the need for restructuring municipal services and regional cooperation.
Municipal differences are stark. Only 39 municipalities will grow by 2050, almost all large cities or their commuter belts. In most of Finland, the population will decline, with small municipalities losing heavily. Even in many regional centres such as Kuopio and Joensuu, deaths will outpace births despite previous inflows from rural areas.
Immigration remains the only factor keeping the labour force stable into the 2040s. The current level of about 26,500 net arrivals per year is enough to sustain moderate growth until then. But when the small age cohorts born in the 2010s and 2020s reach working age, numbers will fall regardless of migration levels. Without immigration Finland’s population would shrink by 10,000–15,000 annually.
By 2050, ageing will dominate everywhere. Every municipality will see an increase in its oldest residents, and health and care services will face mounting strain. The report suggests that municipal mergers or intensified cooperation may become unavoidable as costs grow.
HT
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Source: www.helsinkitimes.fi
