Outdoor campaign posters for the regional and municipal elections at Espoontori in Espoo on Thursday, 10 April 2025. LEHTIKUVA
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Finland’s opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the governing National Coalition Party (NCP) are virtually tied ahead of Sunday’s municipal and county elections, according to a new poll released by Yle.
In the municipal race, the SDP leads the NCP by just 0.1 percentage points. In the county council contest, the gap is slightly wider at 0.3 points.
With such a narrow margin, voter turnout is expected to play a decisive role in determining the final result.
The poll was conducted by research company Taloustutkimus and suggests that NCP supporters are more likely to vote than their SDP counterparts. Some 77 percent of NCP backers said they had already voted or were certain to vote, compared to 68 percent of SDP voters.
“This is a difference that could be quite decisive in the elections,” said Tuomo Turja, Research Director at Taloustutkimus. “The National Coalition Party has traditionally had more loyal voters than the Social Democratic Party. Based on the poll, it seems that the NCP will fare better at mobilising its voters.”
However, Turja also noted that such projections have their limits. In the last municipal election in 2021, a similar poll suggested a turnout rate of 76 percent among likely voters. The final turnout was 55 percent.
Support for the Finns Party, part of the current coalition government, has dropped significantly in the run-up to the election. In the municipal poll, the party has fallen behind the Centre Party by five percentage points. In the county council poll, the Finns Party trails in sixth place, behind the Left Alliance and the Greens.
This marks a sharp decline for the party, which finished second in the 2023 parliamentary elections. According to Turja, the drop is partly due to difficulties in energising its voter base outside national elections.
“The pattern is the same that the Finns Party has seen in all elections other than parliamentary elections,” Turja said. “They [the parliamentary elections] deal with themes that speak to their supporters, and in other elections, the Finns Party has had quite a lot of trouble mobilising its own supporters to vote.”
The Centre Party appears to be gaining from this decline, as does the NCP. One in four voters who supported the Finns Party in 2023 now say they are undecided.
The elections, set for Sunday 13 April, will determine the makeup of both municipal governments and regional councils responsible for health and social services. The dual structure is part of a recent reform aimed at streamlining public services.
Advance voting has already concluded, with final turnout figures to be confirmed after the polls close on Sunday evening.
HT
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Source: www.helsinkitimes.fi
